Today’s Mortgage and Refinance Rates
Average mortgage rates rose last Friday, rebounding from Wednesday’s all-time low. Of course, these rates are still extraordinarily low. But the latest hikes suggest their downward trajectory is less certain than previously thought.
First thing this morning, mortgage rates are expected to remain stable or barely budge today. Investors don’t like Republican senators’ suggestions for a much less generous pandemic relief package than that proposed by the president.
Find and Lock a Low Rate (Sep 16, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
|Conventional 30 years fixed||2,745%||2,745%||Unchanged|
|Conventional 15 years fixed||2.313%||2.313%||Unchanged|
|5-year conventional MRA||3%||2,743%||Unchanged|
|30-year fixed FHA||2.495%||3,473%||Unchanged|
|15 years fixed FHA||2,438%||3.38%||Unchanged|
|5 years ARM FHA||2.5%||3.226%||+ 0.01%|
|Fixed VA over 30 years||2.3%||2.472%||Unchanged|
|VA fixed 15 years||2,188%||2.508%||Unchanged|
|ARM VA 5 years||2.5%||2.406%||+ 0.01%|
|Prices are provided by our network of partners and may not reflect the market. Your rate may be different. Click here for a personalized quote. See our pricing assumptions here.|
Find and Lock a Low Rate (Sep 16, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders change rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest news on the impact of the coronavirus on your home loan, Click here.
Should you lock in a mortgage rate today?
The mortgage rate market remains fraught with uncertainty. There is still no sign of a significant break from the narrow range they have moved into recently. But that does not mean that one is impossible.
However, for now, the risks of your rate floating and freezing seem quite limited. And your choice between the two will likely depend as much on your personal risk appetite as it does on any reliable analysis of rate trends.
At times like this, my personal instinct is to be careful. So my personal rate foreclosure recommendations, which are little better than hunches, are:
- LOCK if closing 7 days
- LOCK if closing 15 days
- LOCK if closing 30 days
- FLOAT if closing 45 days
- FLOAT if closing 60 days
Yet, with so much uncertainty right now, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a look at the state of play this morning around 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared to around the same time yesterday morning, was as follows:
- The 10-year Treasury bill yield slightly less than 1.08% of 1.09%. (Good for mortgage rates) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular yields on Treasury bonds, although less recently
- Main stock market indices were higher at the opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, which lowers bond prices and increases yields and mortgage rates. The reverse happens when the indices are lower
- Oil price barely budged, up to $ 52.99 versus $ 53.00 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates * because energy prices play a big role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.)
- Gold price increased to $ 1,867 from $ 1,861 per ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold goes up, and worse when gold goes down. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
- CNN Business Fear & Greed Index – fell to 37 from 42 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. We therefore only count significant differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Warnings about markets and rates
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess at what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But this is no longer the case. The Fed is now a big player and some days can overwhelm investor sentiment.
So use the markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to go up) or weak (they might go down) to build on them. But, with that caveat, so far today’s mortgage rates look likely to remain stable or barely on either side of the neutral line.
Find and Lock a Low Rate (Sep 16, 2021)
Important Notes on Today’s Mortgage Rates
Here are some things you should know:
- The Fed’s ongoing interventions in the mortgage market (well above $ 1 trillion) are expected to exert continued downward pressure on these rates. But it can’t work wonders all the time. And read “For once, the Fed is affecting mortgage rates. here’s why”If you want to understand this aspect of what is happening
- Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it is struggling. But there are exceptions. Read How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
- Only “top” borrowers (with exceptional credit scores, large down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultra low mortgage rates you’ll see advertised.
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate moves – although they generally all follow the larger trend over time.
- When rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their fee schedules unchanged.
- Refinancing rates are generally close to those for purchases. But some types of refinancing are higher following a regulatory change
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the hours, days, weeks or months to come.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates going up or down?
I am expecting mortgage rates to barely budge today. But, as always, that could change as the day goes on.
And, unfortunately, it is currently impossible to look any further. Of course, such predictions are never 100% reliable. But I generally have a better idea of what’s to come than I do now.
Having said that, I would be surprised (but not flabbergasted) if mortgage rates were to suddenly change suddenly. So, for now, I think the risks and rewards of your foreclosure or float will likely be limited.
For more information on my broader thinking, read our latest weekend edition, which is published every Saturday shortly after 10 a.m. (ET).
Over the past few months, the overall trend in mortgage rates is clearly downward. And a new all-time low was set 16 times last year, according to Freddie Mac.
The most recent weekly record was on January 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed rate mortgages. But the rates then went up. And in Freddie’s Jan.21 report, that weekly average was 2.77%.
They had fallen only 2.73% in the January 28 report. But that was because the study’s methodology largely excludes movements every Wednesday – and that’s when this week’s big drop occurred.
Expert mortgage rate forecasts
In the longer term, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, the real estate sector and mortgage rates. .
And here are their current rate forecasts for each quarter of 2021 (Q1 / 21, Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21).
Fannie’s were released on January 15, Freddie on January 14, and MBAs on January 20. The figures in the table below relate to 30-year fixed rate mortgages:
|Forecaster||T1 / 21||T2 / 21||Q3 / 21||T4 / 21|
But, given so many unknowables, the current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual. And there is certainly a widening of the gap as the year progresses.
Find your lowest rate today
Some lenders have been frightened by the pandemic. And they limit their offers to the more vanilla mortgages and refinances.
But others remain courageous. And you can still probably find the cash refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan that you want. Just shop more widely.
But, of course, you should be doing a lot of comparison regardless of what type of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said:
Shopping around for your mortgage can save you money. It may not seem like much, but saving even a quarter of a point of interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Check your new rate (Sep 16, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
Mortgage reports receive rates based on selected criteria from several lending partners every day. We arrive at an average rate and an APR for each type of loan to display in our graph. Because we average a range of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we average the rates for the same types of loans. For example, fixed FHA with fixed FHA. The end result is a good overview of the daily rates and how they have changed over time.